Hungary could meet the economic conditions required to adopt the euro by 2030, according to a new assessment by credit rating agency Fitch Ratings. The outlook is supported by the Hungarian government’s proposed 2027 budget and its plans to reduce the national budget deficit over the coming years.

The assessment marks an important step in Hungary’s ambition to join the eurozone, although achieving the target will depend on whether the government can deliver sustained fiscal improvements and meet all European Union requirements for adopting the single currency.

Hungary Plans Significant Budget Deficit Reduction

The Hungarian government’s draft 2027 budget targets a reduction in the general government deficit to 4.9% of gross domestic product (GDP), compared with an estimated 7.5% in 2026.

The proposed measures include spending cuts equivalent to around 1.5% of GDP, the expiry of temporary spending measures and additional revenue from tax changes. The government also expects lower interest costs to contribute to its consolidation efforts.

Fitch forecasts that Hungary’s deficit will fall to 5.4% of GDP in 2027 before declining below 3% by 2030. However, the agency has warned that implementing the planned adjustments could prove challenging, particularly because some expected savings remain uncertain.

Public Debt Remains a Major Challenge

Despite the planned improvements, Hungary faces significant fiscal challenges. Fitch expects public debt to peak at approximately 77.7% of GDP in 2027–2028, substantially above the median debt level among countries with a similar BBB sovereign credit rating.

The future debt trajectory will depend partly on the performance of the Hungarian economy and movements in the forint exchange rate. Sustained economic growth and lower borrowing costs could support the government's efforts to improve public finances.

Fitch expects Hungary’s real economic growth to reach around 2.5% in 2027, accelerating to approximately 3% in 2028. Increased investment, the use of European Union funding and stronger private consumption could help support that recovery.

Meeting the Euro Adoption Requirements

Reducing the budget deficit is only one part of the process of joining the eurozone. Hungary must also meet the EU’s convergence criteria, which cover price stability, long-term interest rates, exchange-rate stability and compatibility of national legislation with eurozone rules.

The country would also need to participate in the Exchange Rate Mechanism II (ERM II) for at least two years before adopting the euro, without severe exchange-rate tensions or a unilateral devaluation against the euro.

If Hungary enters ERM II by 2030 and fulfils the remaining conditions, euro adoption in 2032 could become possible. However, that timeline remains conditional rather than confirmed.

Fiscal Discipline Will Determine Progress

Fitch’s assessment suggests that Hungary’s proposed budget is consistent with its goal of meeting euro adoption criteria by 2030. The key test will be whether the government can implement its spending and revenue measures while maintaining economic growth and controlling public debt.

For Hungary, progress towards the eurozone could strengthen investor confidence and reduce financing costs if the fiscal strategy proves credible. Nevertheless, the country’s entry into the currency bloc will depend on sustained economic performance and compliance with all required EU criteria.

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