A group of newly created accounts on Polymarket made substantial profits by placing timely bets on a US-Iran ceasefire just hours before the announcement by Donald Trump, prompting concerns over potential insider trading. Blockchain data shows that at least 50 new accounts placed large “Yes” bets on a ceasefire occurring on April 7, shortly before Trump confirmed the agreement. The bets were the first transactions made by these accounts.
One account reportedly invested around $72,000 and earned a profit of approximately $200,000. Another newly created wallet generated more than $125,000 in gains, while a third account—set up minutes before the announcement—made nearly $50,000 in profit.
The ceasefire announcement came amid heightened tensions, with Trump earlier warning of severe consequences if Iran failed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
The timing and scale of the trades have raised questions among analysts and lawmakers about whether some users had access to non-public information.
Republican Congressman Blake Moore said the trades were “highly unlikely” to be made in good faith, suggesting the possibility of insider involvement.
Polymarket has labeled the ceasefire contract as “disputed,” citing ongoing uncertainties, including continued regional tensions and restrictions affecting shipping routes.
The platform has not issued an official statement regarding the trading activity. Due to the nature of blockchain-based wallets, identifying the individuals behind the accounts remains difficult.
The incident adds to growing scrutiny of prediction markets, with lawmakers considering new regulations to expand insider trading rules to include such platforms.
