The Bank of Japan kept its benchmark policy rate unchanged at 0.75% on Tuesday, while raising its inflation outlook as rising oil prices linked to Middle East tensions increase pressure on the economy. The decision was taken by a 6-3 vote, with three policymakers calling for a rate hike to 1%, citing heightened inflation risks driven by geopolitical developments.
The central bank revised its core inflation forecast for the fiscal year 2026 to 2.8%, up from 1.9%, moving further above its 2% target. At the same time, it lowered its economic growth forecast to 0.5% from 1%, reflecting expectations of weaker economic activity.
The BOJ said higher crude oil prices are likely to weigh on corporate profits and household incomes, warning that growth could slow due to worsening trade conditions.
Japan’s economy had narrowly avoided a technical recession in late 2025, with growth revised to 0.3% quarter-on-quarter and 1.3% year-on-year.
Recent data showed inflation picking up again, with consumer prices rising 1.8% in March after a period of moderation. Headline inflation stood at 1.5%, remaining below the central bank’s 2% target for a second consecutive month.
A closely watched measure excluding both food and energy costs eased to 2.4%, its lowest level since October 2024, indicating underlying price pressures remain mixed.
The BOJ said rising energy costs are expected to push prices higher, alongside continued efforts by businesses to pass on increased wage costs to consumers.
Following the decision, Japan’s 10-year government bond yield remained broadly stable at around 2.468%, after recently reaching its highest level in decades earlier this month.
Equity markets reacted negatively, with the Nikkei 225 index declining about 0.5%, while the Japanese yen strengthened slightly after comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda suggested the possibility of a future rate increase.
The central bank’s latest decision underscores the growing challenge of balancing economic support with rising inflation risks amid global uncertainty.
