Poland’s public debt could surge past 100% of gross domestic product by 2036 unless significant fiscal reforms are introduced, the European Commission has warned in its latest debt sustainability assessment.
In its Debt Sustainability Monitor 2025, the Commission projected that Poland’s debt-to-GDP ratio could reach approximately 107% within a decade under a scenario where spending restraint and structural adjustments are not implemented.
Currently, Poland’s debt level remains comparatively moderate. According to Eurostat data for the third quarter of 2025, the country’s debt ratio stood at 58% of GDP, below many European Union member states. However, Brussels cautions that the trajectory could shift sharply without corrective measures.
If the Commission’s baseline scenario materialises, Poland would rank among the bloc’s most indebted economies by 2036. Only Italy (149%), France (144%), Belgium (137%) and Spain (108%) would record higher debt ratios, according to projections.
The assessment evaluates fiscal sustainability across short-, medium- and long-term horizons. In the short term, covering roughly the next two years, risks are considered limited, and Poland continues to be viewed by markets as a credible sovereign borrower.
Beyond that window, risks intensify. The Commission highlighted a persistent structural deficit and the rising cost of servicing debt as key drivers of deterioration. Without fiscal adjustment, the imbalance between revenues and expenditures is expected to keep public debt on an upward path.
Gross borrowing needs could rise to around 20% of GDP by 2036, increasing Poland’s reliance on financial markets and potentially elevating debt-servicing costs.
The report also explored stress scenarios. If economic growth weakens relative to borrowing costs, debt levels could climb even higher than the baseline projection. Conversely, improvements in the primary balance, the fiscal position excluding interest payments, could slow debt growth as early as 2027.
The warning has sparked debate within Poland. Some economists argue that the risk should not be underestimated. Andrzej Sadowski, president of the Adam Smith Centre, pointed to the sovereign debt crisis in Greece as a reminder that EU membership does not shield countries from insolvency risks.
He said that poor governance and regulatory burdens could compound fiscal pressures. According to Sadowski, Poland faces structural challenges including declining economic freedom rankings and growing regulatory complexity.
He argued that stabilising public finances should not rely primarily on higher taxation. Instead, he called for deregulation and reductions in state operating costs to lower borrowing needs.
Poland has so far avoided the severe debt crises experienced by some southern European economies. However, the Commission’s projections suggest that maintaining fiscal discipline will be critical to preventing a significant deterioration in the country’s public finance position over the next decade.
